William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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MARCO'S TIME? – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  Well, maybe.  This is such an unusual year that predictions are out of order.  But Rubio's strength in Iowa gives him the opportunity to capitalize and move up. 

The New Hampshire polls aren't promising.  Trump still retains a huge lead.  But all Rubio has to do is gain dramatically in the last week to show that he is the one on the move.   It's reported that he has a good ground game going in South Carolina.  He has the support there of U.S. Senator Tim Scott, an African-American, and Congressman Trey Gowdy. 

As more Republicans drop out of the race, the focus will be on the anti-Trumps, Cruz and Rubio.  Many feel that Rubio, by sheer attractiveness of personality, is the more electable.  We'll see.  From The Politico: 

DES MOINES, Iowa — With his strong showing in the caucuses here, Marco Rubio is growing closer to consolidating the establishment wing of the Republican Party — and tightening the noose around the necks of his mainstream GOP rivals, including Jeb Bush.

Rubio’s third-place finish, top party officials, donors and strategists said on Tuesday, positioned him to take the establishment mantle and win over Republican leaders who are eager to coalesce around a single candidate and halt insurgents Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. His foes, conceding that time was growing short to demonstrate strength, spent the day in private strategy sessions where they plotted how to prevent powerful supporters from bolting.

“Marco Rubio controls his own destiny for the first time in this campaign,” said Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. “If he performs in New Hampshire, it is very difficult to see how his campaign won’t quickly consolidate a lot of support.”

With the GOP hierarchy warming to Rubio, the squeeze is suddenly on struggling establishment contenders Chris Christie, John Kasich and Bush, who must convince party higher-ups that they have a reason to continue on. On Tuesday morning, top Bush donors and finance officials held two conference calls to discuss the path forward. On one, according to one participant, there was an acknowledgement of the campaign’s increasingly long odds and an agreement that, barring a strong Bush showing in New Hampshire, many Bush donors would soon bolt to Rubio.

COMMENT:  February and March are the crucial months.  I would not be shocked to see a three-way race come March 31st – Trump, Cruz, Rubio.  Nor would I be shocked to see Trump start to falter.  I sense that many are becoming tired of his insult game, and even he acknowledges that refusing to attend the last debate in Iowa may have been a major blunder.

Also, when it comes to getting into the details of issues, Trump is simply weak.  In a real debate over issues, he'd be creamed by either Cruz or Rubio...or Hillary. 

This is very exciting stuff.

February 3, 2016